If the pressure is low off Iceland, the north wall of the stream drifts away from the equator and allows warm air masses to move north from the tropics while keeping cold water from flowing down the continental shelf off the Atlantic coast. In this case, if there has been a lot of summertime heat off the coast of Africa you may reasonably count on tropical storms to bear down on New England. If, on the other hand, the gulf stream has moved south and the tropics are calm, the door will be open for northeasters and northwesters to bring unrelieved cold winds and currents that will drive the bait offshore. Where the bait goes, the gamefish will follow. Which of these factors start the cascade of events that leads to the fishing conditions outside my door on Gardiners Bay is something science has yet to determine.

The fact remains, though, that this metaphorical orchestra has a lot of instruments that need to be in tune for me to have happy  angling.

The Moon pulled up an acre of Bass – Peter Kaminsky